The epidemiology of severe malaria at Manhiça District Hospital, Mozambique: a retrospective analysis of 20 years of malaria admissions surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Most malaria burden estimates rely on modelling infection prevalence to case incidence data, with insufficient attention having been paid to the changing clinical presentation of severe disease and its relationship with changing transmission intensity. We present 20 years of longitudinal surveillance data to contribute to the understanding of the relationship between malaria transmission and the burden and clinical presentation of severe malaria and to inform policy. METHODS: This retrospective analysis of clinical surveillance hospital data included all children younger than 15 years admitted with malaria to Manhiça District Hospital (MDH), Mozambique, from July 1, 1997, to June 30, 2017. Case fatality ratios (CFRs) were calculated as the number of patients who died having a specific diagnosis or syndrome divided by the total number of patients with known outcome admitted with that diagnosis or syndrome. FINDINGS: Over the study period, 32 138 children were admitted to MDH with a malaria diagnosis. Malaria accounted for a large proportion of admissions, ranging from 4083 (76·9%) of 5307 admissions in 2000-01 to 706 (27·5%) of 2568 admissions in 2010-11. Since 2000-02, the absolute and relative number of malaria admissions and deaths presented a decreasing trend. The age pattern of patients with malaria shifted to older ages with a median age of 1·7 years (IQR 0·9-3·0) in 1997-2006 and 2·6 years (IQR 1·3-4·4) in 2006-17, although most malaria deaths (60-88% in 2009-17) still occurred in children younger than 5 years. The clinical presentation of severe malaria changed, with an increase in cerebral malaria and a decrease in severe anaemia and respiratory distress, leading to similar yearly cases for the three syndromes. CFRs for severe malaria fluctuated between 1·1% (2 of 186 in 2014-15) and 7·2% (11 of 152 in 2010-11), varying by severe malaria syndrome (3·3% [70 of 2105] for severe anaemia, 5·1% [191 of 3777] for respiratory distress, and 14·8% [72 of 487] for cerebral malaria). Overall malaria CFRs (1·8% [543 of 30 163]) did not vary by age group. INTERPRETATION: Despite the unprecedented scale up of malaria control tools, malaria still represented around 30-40% of paediatric hospital admissions in 2006-17. The age shift towards older children was not accompanied by an increase in severe malaria or deaths; however, control programmes should consider adapting their high-risk target groups to include older children. Malaria remains a leading cause of disease and health-care system use and the massive unfinished malaria control agenda warrants intensified efforts. FUNDING: Spanish Agency for International Cooperation and Development.

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control. METHODS: Using an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents. FINDINGS: We estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7-311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8-497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7-326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3-634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7-342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0-784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7-358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4-947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%-75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6-343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8-545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3-345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3-549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9-348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5-553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5-358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1-691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2-377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0-856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7-396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1-1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. INTERPRETATION: Under pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.